Idea Festival 2015: ISIS, Cyber Warfare and the Presidential Race - What Comes Next?
I have recently returned from KentPresents, a 2-day “idea festival” held in the beautiful town of Kent, Connecticut. Full details – and it’s well worth a look – at KentPresents.org.
Seventy-two brilliant persons gave 1-hour presentations to the 300 attendees, on subjects ranging from politics, government, and diplomacy to genetics, technology, medicine, and art.
The presentations were loosely arranged around the theme of “What Comes Next?” – what can we expect to happen in the future. This question was applied to the Iran treaty, ISIS, cyber warfare, energy generation, climate change, cancer research, income inequality, genetic engineering, the 2016 Presidential race, art, gun control, sex education, personalized medicine, nano-technology, drones, GMO’s and musical theatre.
I can’t do it justice, but let me share a couple of the ideas and insights that I came away with:
A Republican win in 2016 is like “drawing to an inside straight,” according to a leading Republic strategist. Because the Democrats have so many states sewn up already, the Republicans must win both Ohio and Florida, as well as virtually all of the South. If the Republicans lose either Ohio or Florida, the Democrats win the White House.
The boundaries of many Arab countries in the Middle East were artificially drawn at the end of World War I, and one likely result of ISIS and related groups today is, ultimately, a redrawing of boundaries whereby some territory becomes a Shi’ite “state” and other territory is a Suni “state.” This almost seems inevitable.
Regardless of the extent to which global warming is actually occurring, it will be extremely, extremely difficult to reverse, requiring extensive international cooperation. Reversing the effect of CO2 accumulation apparently takes a very long time and a very coordinated effort. It was a pessimistic forecast.
Cyber threats are real. Just as the military importance and power of the airplane grew in just thirty years from rudimentary military use in 1911 to dominating importance in World War II, the power of cyber for ill is just beginning, and will grow far more rapidly. Prediction of one expert: the most serious cyber-attacks will be against private, rather than governmental, targets.
Despite the ill effects of technology (climate change and cyber, above), there are lots of very smart folks using technology for good. Extinct species are literally being brought back into existence. Nano-technology allows sensors to detect dangers and thus make oil pipelines and industrial facilities safer.
The future of energy generation seems to lie in nuclear power. However, in addition, great advances in battery storage are only a few years away from making solar and wind power economically competitive, allowing power to be stored in volume so that it can still be supplied to the grid on cloudy or calm days.
Quite a few of the presenters were in favor of the Iran treaty. Their main arguments: (1) that failure to pass will leave the United States isolated in continuing to press sanctions against Iran, and lead to a breakdown of international cooperation; (2) that it’s better for Iran to have a bomb in 10-11 years than in a few months; and (3) that it’s possible that Iran may join the international community and stop being a state sponsor of widespread terrorism. In opposition to this view, I offer Steve Forbes’ interview with Benjamin Netanyahu that appeared in a recent issue of Forbes magazine, at http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2015/07/16/why-iran-deal-is-so-deadly-israeli-prime-minister-netanyahu-talks-with-steve-forbes/.
Videos of all presentations at KentPresents are expected to be online soon.
